President Trump has received a significant bump in the polls in the aftermath of last week’s Republican National Convention (RNC), jumping to a three-point lead in the national popular vote and a seven-point lead in key battleground states in the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll released Sunday.
The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll shows that President Trump leads Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden 48 percent to 45 percent in the national popular vote, a one point bump from the two point lead the same poll found the president had in its survey released at the beginning of August. The president now also leads Biden by seven points in key battleground states, a two point bump from the five point lead he had in the same survey.
The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between Wednesday August 26 and Friday August 28 and has a 2.5 percent margin of error. Wednesday was the third day of the RNC, which ended on Thursday evening with the president’s acceptance speech. (The poll’s methodology description states, “The national party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 28 percent.”)
The Morning Consult Poll, conducted on Friday, August 29, the day after the convention ended, showed the president received a four point bump from the RNC. He now trails Biden by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent, compared to the ten points he trailed Biden by, 52 percent to 42 percent in the same poll conducted just prior to the RNC:
President Donald Trump needed a convention bounce — and he got one, emerging from the Republican National Convention with an improved standing against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, fueled by gains among white voters and those in the suburbs, though he still trails the former vice president nationwide.
A new Morning Consult poll conducted Friday that asked 4,035 likely voters which candidate they would pick found Biden leading Trump by 6 percentage points, 50 percent to 44 percent. It marked a 4-point improvement from his standing heading into the convention on Aug. 23, when Biden led 52 percent to 42 percent. Friday’s poll had a 2-point margin of error, compared with a 1-point margin of error for responses gathered among 4,810 likely voters on Aug. 23.
The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls currently shows Biden with a 6.9 percent lead in the national popular vote and a 2.7 percent lead in the battleground states of Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona.
The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll shows that Trump leads Biden among white voters by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin. The president’s support among black and Hispanic voters has increased.
Nineteen percent of black voters support President Trump, while 77 percent support former Vice President Biden. This represents an 11 point increase of support among black voters for the president, compared to the 8 percent support he received in the 2016 presidential election.
Thirty nine percent of Hispanic voters support President Trump, while only 50 percent support former Vice President Biden, a ten point increase in support among Hispanic voters for the president, compared to the 28 percent he received in the 2016 presidential election.
The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll also showed that the president leads Biden in six key battleground states–Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin–by seven points, 49 percent to 42 percent, with ten percent undecided.
The poll also narrowed in battleground states with larger state-specific polls, which showed the following:
Florida – Popular Vote (500 likely voters with a margin of error of 4 percent)
• Trump = 47%
• Biden = 44%
• Undecided = 9%
Minnesota – Popular Vote (450 likely voters in with a margin of error of 5 percent)
• Trump = 48%
• Biden = 45%
• Undecided = 7%
New Hampshire – Popular Vote (400 likely voters in with a margin of error of 5 percent)
• Trump = 47%
• Biden = 43%
• Undecided = 10%
In the electoral college vote projection, the poll projects the president will increase upon his 2016 election day electoral college margin of 306 to 232 over Hillary Clinton by picking up the states of Minnesota (10 electoral college votes) and New Hampshire (4 electoral college votes), while holding on to all the states he won in 2016, though possibly losing the one electoral college vote from Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, bringing him to 319 electoral college votes to Biden’s 219 electoral college votes.
The most recent Democracy Institute/Sunday Express electoral college projection contains bad news for Biden in Wisconsin, which the early August poll projected would be the only state to switch from Trump in 2016 to the former vice president and Democratic nominee in 2020.
In Sunday’s electoral college projection, the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll now projects Wisconsin as an electoral college win for President Trump.
“Wisconsin is the last of the swing rust belt states to reach a tipping point on law and order,” Democracy Institute Polling Director Patrick Basham told Breitbart News in an exclusive interview.
As Breitbart News reported on Thursday, the violent Black Lives Matter riots that began in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last Sunday night after police in that city shot a 29-year-old black man, Jacob Blake, in the back seven times after he resisted arrest appear to have played a significant role in changing voter attitudes in Wisconsin towards President Trump and away from his Democratic challenger, Biden.
Even before the Kenosha riots, public approval for the Black Lives Matter in Wisconsin dropped precipitously in the two months between the Marquette Law School Poll conducted in early June, which showed Black Lives Matter protests enjoyed a 61 percent approval to 36 percent disapproval rating among likely voters, and early August, when the same poll showed Black Lives Matter protests approval ratings dropped to 48 percent, while disapproval increased to 48 percent, a drop in net approval of 25 points.
Law and order/riots/violence was the single top issue on the minds of poll respondents, with 37 percent identifying it as “the most important issue” to them:
Q “Which issue is most important to you?”
• Law & order/riots/violence = 37%
• Economy/jobs = 27%
• Education = 13%
• Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic = 13%
• Immigration = 10%
The poll documented changing attitudes towards Black Lives Matter, law and order/riots/violence, and defunding police, as poll respondents’ answers to the following questions indicate:
Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?”
• Black Lives Matter = 26%
• All Lives Matter = 74%
Q “Do you approve or disapprove of the removal of historic monuments and statues because certain individuals or groups find them offensive?”
• Approve 15%
• Disapprove 79%
• Don’t Know 6%
Q “Do the violent protests in Wisconsin make you more or less likely to vote for Trump?”
• More likely = 26%
• Less likely = 10%
• Makes no difference = 64%
Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?”
• Too tough 23%
• Just right 33%
• Not tough enough 44%
Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the protests and riots?”
• Approve = 62%
• Disapprove = 38%
Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?”
• Yes = 34%
• No = 64%
Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between Black Americans and the police?”
• Law & order = 72%
• Improving relations between Black Americans & police = 26%
Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?”
• Yes = 16%
• No = 75%
The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll also found a huge enthusiasm gap between Trump voters and Biden voters, as these two poll questions and responses indicate:
Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”
• Trump voters = 82%
• Biden voters = 40%
Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?
• Trump voters: positive vote = 85%; negative vote = 15%
• Biden voters: positive vote = 34%; negative vote = 66%
Notably, only three percent of Trump voters said their vote could change before election day, while nine percent of Biden voters said their vote could change before election day.
Among voters who initially identified as undecided, the poll found a significant number of “shy” Trump voters. Seventy-two percent of these undecided voters said “a relative, friend, or coworker plan[s] to vote for Trump,” while 28 percent said a relative friend or coworker did not plan to vote for Trump.
Only 25 percent of Trump voters said they were comfortable with their relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how they will vote, while 86 percent of Biden voters said they were comfortable with their relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how they will vote.
Fifty-seven percent of poll respondents believe President Trump will be re-elected, and 66 percent believe President Trump will win the first debate.
President Trump fared well in national job approval, with 52 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving. The breakdown by party, age, religion, and ethnicity was:
Party ID – Trump’s National Job Approval
• Republican = 86%
• Democrat = 28%
• Independent = 49%
Race/ethnicity – Trump’s National Job Approval
• White = 58%
• Black = 42%
• Hispanic = 46%
Gender – Trump’s National Job Approval
• Men = 54%
• Women = 48%
Religion – Trump’s National Job Approval
• Evangelical = 90%
• Protestant = 62%
• Catholic = 64%
• Jewish = 33%
• Atheist = 10%
Age – Trump’s National Job Approval
• 65 years & over = 58%
• 45-64 years = 64%
• 30-44 years = 45%
• 18-29 years = 38%
Marital Status – Trump’s National Job Approval
• Married 63%
• Single 31%
The Republican National Convention provided a much greater boost for the Trump-Pence ticket than the Democratic National Convention did for the Biden-Harris ticket.
Twenty-one percent of poll respondents said the Republican National Convention made them “more likely” to support the Trump-Pence ticket, while only eight percent of poll respondents said the Democratic National Convention made them “more likely” to support the Biden-Harris ticket.
Sixty-seven percent of poll respondents believed “the economy [is] rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown,” and 59 percent of respondents trusted Trump to do the best job handling the economy, while 41 trusted Biden.
Only 44 percent of respondents approved of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, while 48 percent disapproved.
By more than a two-to-one margin, 67 percent to 31 percent, poll respondents said that Trump will do a better job of standing up to China than Biden.
By a two-to-one margin, 67 percent to 33 percent, poll respondents want their local school to reopen soon.
Fifty-nine percent of poll respondents “think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia.”
Forty-eight percent of poll respondents say their “opinion of Joe Biden’s mental acuity” makes them less likely to vote for him.
Seventy percent of poll respondents say Trump is a strong leader, while 24 percent say Biden is a strong leader.
Biden has the edge in voter perceptions of consensus building, with 55 percent of respondents describing him as a “consensus builder,” a term only 20 percent apply to President Trump.
Fifty-nine percent say Biden is a likeable person, while only 32 percent say Trump is a likeable person.
Sixty-two percent say Biden, who is 77 years old, is too old to be president, while only 35 percent say President Trump, who is 74 years old, is too old to be president.
With barely two months until the November 3 presidential election, the most recent Democracy Institute/Sunday Express Poll results suggest that momentum in the race is moving swiftly towards President Trump and away from former Vice President Biden, and that reactions to the violent Black Lives Matter protests is the most significant explanation for that change.