What Crisis? — By Dr Lee Gerhard

The below essay is written by Dr Lee Gerhard, a retired geologist from the University of Kansas (B.S. in Geology in 1958, M.S. in Paleontology minor. in 1961, and Ph.D. in Geology in 1964). Dr Gerhard believes that climate change has been a natural phenomenon driven by natural processes for 4.5 billion years, but that cultural pressures now exist to identify a human cause for current trends.

“I never fully accepted or denied the anthropogenic global warming concept until the furore started after NASA’s James Hansen’s wild claims in the late 1980s. I went to the [scientific] literature to study the basis of the claim, starting with first principles. My studies then led me to believe that the claims were false.” — Dr Lee Gerhard

It is appalling that so many scientists have purposely abdicated their principles to advance a climate change (anthropogenic warming) theory already disproven by empirical data. They prefer to believe their computer models, models that are designed to support their beliefs owing to imbedded assumptions. That there has been warming since the latter half of the 20th Century is undeniable. To attribute that miniscule warming to human-added carbon dioxide and prophesy that it is dangerous to humanity is either pernicious, demonstrating either willful dismissal of climate history, or ignorance.

Ice core temperature reconstruction is empirical, reproducible, and accessible. The Earth has been getting colder for more than 4000 years (Davis and Bohling, 2000). The “colding” has been episodic, certainly on a millennial scale, with warm peaks variously labeled Minoan, Roman, Medieval, and, putative, Modern (Alley, 2000; Cuffey and Clow, 1997).

There are other data sets that are not empirical, but relate human activities and artifacts to temperature. The exhaustive data published by Lamb (1996) documents and illustrates relationship of temperatures and human activities by interpreting soil sequences, recorded history such as wine production in England, tax records of the Roman Empire and such. The amount of data is almost overwhelming, recording the large swings of global temperatures in the centuries and millennia before the last 50 years, long before significant human additions to carbon dioxide. Lamb illustrates that during all the warm events, human civilization has prospered; in the intervening cold time, pestilence and poverty raged.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is widely credited by media and governments as being authoritative about the state and future of global climate, but it is not a scientific group. Although it includes a group of scientists, it is political, not scientific. Its mission is a political agenda: “Document human impacts on global climate.” It is neither a scientific examination or nor a test of their assumption that human emitted carbon dioxide controls global temperature.

Now that global temperature has not risen to create any “crisis,” scientists who dare to speak out about data and thus challenge the IPCC hypothesis are excommunicated by the church of social media and academia. They have lost income, employment and acceptance. Being a true scientist is not easy in this day and age.

The last few decades of warming have been beneficial, saving hundreds of thousands of lives and helping feed a burgeoning global population. It is unfortunate that that climate cycle has apparently ended. Will pestilence and starvation abound?

That is the real crisis.

References cited:

Alley, R.B. 2000. The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland. Quaternary Science Reviews 19:213-226.

Cuffey, K.M., and G.D. Clow. 1997. Temperature, accumulation, and ice sheet elevation in central Greenland through the last deglacial transition. Journal of Geophysical Research 102:26383-26396.

Davis, John C., and Geoffrey Bohling, 2001, The Search for Patterns in Ice-Core Temperature Curves: in Gerhard, Lee C., William E. Harrison, and Bernold M. Hanson, eds.,2001, Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change: American Association of Petroleum Geologists Studies in Geology #47, Tulsa, OK, p. 213-230.

Thomasson MR, Gerhard LC (2019) The True and False of Climate Change. J Earth Environ Sci 7: 169. DOI:10.29011/2577-0640.100169.

Figure 1: Ice Core temperature reconstruction, Davis and Bohling, 2001.
From Thomasson and Gerhard, 2019.

Lee Gerhard
February, 2022

Civilization exists by geological consentsubject to change without notice.’ — Will Durant

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