Existing Home Sales Skid to Pre-Pandemic Level, a Housing Bust is Underway
by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:
Existing home sale declined for the third month. It’s just a start of what’s coming.
The National Association of Realtors reports Existing-Home Sales Retract 2.4% in April
Report Highlights
- Existing-home sales fell for the third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million.
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- Sales were down 2.4% from the prior month and 5.9% from one year ago.
- With slower demand, the inventory of unsold existing homes climbed to 1.03 million by the end of April, or the equivalent of 2.2 months of the monthly sales pace.
- The median existing-home sales price increased at a slower year-over-year pace of 14.8% to $391,200.
- All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in April, down from 28% in March and up from the 25% recorded in April 2021.
- Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 17% of homes in April, down from 18% in March and equal to 17% in April 2021.
- According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.98% in April, up from 4.17% in March. The average commitment rate(link is external) across all of 2021 was 2.96%.
“The market is quite unusual as sales are coming down, but listed homes are still selling swiftly, and home prices are much higher than a year ago,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.
The NAR’s PowerPoint Presentation has many interesting charts worth a review.
Median Price of Existing Home Sales
Percent Change of Existing Home Sales by Price Range
Year-Over-Year Percent Change of Existing Home Sales
Key Chart Ideas
- Year-over-year sales are down 9 consecutive months.
- Sales of homes over $500,000 are up, below $500,000 down
- The median price of sales continues to rise
Econoday Consensus
Amusing Economists
Economists are more than a bit amusing. One predicted a 4 percent rise in sales. What was that person’s thought process?
