Election Night Results: Early Signals To Watch For As Polls Close Across America
As results hit tonight (likely beginning around 8pmET), we will be updating this post…
Well, you’ve done your patriotic duty to uphold democracy across the union and now all that is left is to sit back and watch the completely error-free results of the Midterm elections quickly roll in as the billions of dollars spent on people and machines to enhance voting integrity and accuracy are shown as being well spent.
Of course, that’s all ridiculous as the mainstream media and Democrat apparatchiks have already set the narrative that ‘we, the people’ should not expect the results tonight (like Brazil managed?) or in fact any time soon.
I’d like to note once again that Brazil — with a population of similar size to the US (especially with mandatory voting and a voting age of 16) — counted all votes nationwide in every race within 3 hours after the polls closed. Every race was decided that night. https://t.co/8phpLUQA6j
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 7, 2022
Around 44 million people had cast their ballots early for the midterm elections as of November 7. Of those, roughly 20 million people voted in person nationwide, while more than 24 million returned their ballot by mail. This is around a 13 percent increase from 2018, when the last midterms were held. Then, a total of 39 million ballots were counted, according to the U.S. Elections Project.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Analysts claim that this could be interpreted as a good sign for Democrats, as in past years the party’s followers have been more likely to vote ahead. While even with these figures it is unclear what the midterm results will be, it does show that there is an increase in political engagement in several states. As The Washington Post notes, 2.5 million people had voted in person early on Friday in Georgia this year when early voting ended, far surpassing the 1.9 million who cast their ballot early in 2018.
It is worth noting that in some states, for example in Vermont and Hawaii, early voting was much higher than in the last midterms because these states changed the law to make it easier to vote early by mail. In 2018, Hawaii moved to all mail-in, which explains the state’s high figures. Vermont in 2021 changed its law to mail out ballots to all active voters without the need to request.
The U.S. Elections Project was last updated on 7 November, with states showing the latest available data.
Remember this chart…
As a reminder, in 2020, 42 states and Washington, D.C., had reported enough results for news organizations to project winners in the presidential race by about 3:00 a.m. Eastern.
But eight states took longer. Six of them — all but Alaska and Michigan — have competitive Senate races this year that could determine the balance of power in Congress.
Of course, before we get to what to watch for tonight, we can’t let the elephant in the room go.
We have seen ‘voting issues’ across multiple states today with 20% of Maricopa County (AZ) machines non-functioning at one point.
So, don’t hold your breath for any real final answers tonight. However, while there are a handful of key races to watch, we note that Axios details seven bellwethers which will help navigate the results as they drip-drip-drip in tonight to see whether Republicans are gaining a foothold in parts of the country that have long eluded them, for example, and the types of Democrats who can win even when the odds would seem to be stacked against them.
1. The best early bellwether: Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s (D-Va.) race against Republican Yesli Vega, in the exurbs outside Washington, D.C., will offer a clear early signal of the national political mood.
A pragmatic Democrat with a national security background, Spanberger has condemned her party’s left wing early and often On Saturday, she was endorsed by vocal Trump critic Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).
Vega reflects the under-the-radar diversity of the GOP’s recruiting class — a Latina candidate who serves as a county supervisor and has a law enforcement background.
Polls close in Virginia early (7 p.m. ET) and the state typically counts ballots quickly. Spanberger’s early victory in 2018 foreshadowed the Democratic wave that year. If Republicans return the favor in 2022, it would be a sign of a wave in the opposite direction.
2. The most important county: Miami-Dade, Florida.
Republicans are confident that Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio will comfortably win their re-elections, but the bigger dynamic to follow is their margin of victory in the state’s most populous, majority-Hispanic county.
Miami-Dade County hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1988 and hasn’t backed a GOP governor since 2002 (Jeb Bush). Rubio hasn’t won an outright majority in his home county for his Senate races, either.
But both have a chance to win in Miami-Dade — result that would signal a GOP landslide and provide rocket fuel for a potential DeSantis presidential campaign.
3. The Democrat best-positioned to survive a red wave: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who is still running neck-and-neck against Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett.
Even as many Democratic colleagues in bluer territory look awfully vulnerable, Slotkin is holding her own in one of the most expensive House battlegrounds.
If Slotkin runs against the tide, she’ll credit Liz Cheney’s endorsement for pushing some suburban swing voters her way. But if Barrett defeats the two-term lawmaker, he’ll be reflective of the new MAGA-aligned Republican majority.
4. The upset to watch: The New York governor’s race.
It’s hard to imagine deep-blue New York electing a Republican governor — especially one who has been closely aligned with former President Trump.
But Gov. Kathy Hochul’s tone-deaf reaction to voters concerned about crime is giving Republican Lee Zeldin a fighting chance.
5. Rare Democratic bright spot: Kansas.
Kansas was one of the first signs of a backlash to aggressive abortion restrictions in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling this past summer.
Even as Democrats are struggling in some deep-blue states, Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly is running competitively against Republican state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, according to strategists from both parties.
Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kansas), representing a suburban Kansas City district that Republicans drew to their favor in redistricting, is also in a strong position. A NYT/Siena poll this week showed Davids leading Republican Amanda Adkins by 15 points in a Biden +5 district.
6. The races that will settle the Mitch McConnell-Rick Scott feud: Arizona and New Hampshire.
The cash-flush, McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund decided not to spend in Arizona and pulled out of the New Hampshire race in October. The super PAC’s reason: It was more important to spend in the races that will decide the Senate majority, rather than gambling on candidates who may be general-election liabilities.
Scott’s allies, meanwhile, view McConnell as overly cautious and worry Republicans will miss an opportunity to take advantage of the GOP wave in two swing states, even with flawed nominees.
If Blake Masters and Don Bolduc win without much establishment help, they’ll likely be thorns in McConnell’s side if he becomes majority leader.
7. Biggest demographic shift: Working-class Hispanic voters.
Republicans are growing bullish that they’ll make significant inroads in Hispanic-heavy parts of the country, where concerns about crime and the economy are creating a wedge against their traditional Democratic affiliation.
“Everyone is seeing that the Hispanic districts have been two, three, four clicks to the right compared to their historical performance,” said one GOP official tracking House races. “They’re coming in red hot Republican.”
The American Enterprise Institute demographics tracker finds the Democratic congressional margin among Hispanic voters 7-9 points below its 2020 level and 17-19 points below its 2018 level.
Key areas to watch for as a sign of the Hispanic shift right: Nevada, the Rio Grande Valley in Texas (where Republicans are hoping to sweep three majority-Hispanic districts), and Colorado’s 8th district, a newly created seat outside Denver.
Finally, while it sounds odd, Alex Berenson makes an interesting point as to why Democrats should be hoping they get crushed.
Tactically, they need a loss so big that Uncle Joe has no choice but to announce very quickly that he will not be running in 2024.
They need a wide open primary that will help them find the next generation of CENTRIST Democrats.
What they do not need, under any circumstances, is for Biden to limp along until late fall 2023 and then bow to reality, creating a giant mess that will only help those Democrats with super-high name recognition.
A close loss will not force that reckoning. But a bad one will (I hope). And a saner Democratic Party will be good for everyone.
Having said all that, we are left thinking, just what do liberal Democrats do, if, in a free and fair election, US voters throw them out and replace them with people our elites routinely equate with fascists and Nazis?
…and most importantly, who (or what) will get the blame?